Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...Africa...Iran...N Korea...2.internal devts. 17

“African Corps” headquarters burned down in Russia {east of Kerch bridge}
militarnyi | 21 September 2024

... used by Russia to train its mercenaries, who are then sent to various conflict zones.

... in May, it became known that Russia had created a special unit to recruit mercenaries in several African countries...

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/african-corps-headquarters-burned-down-in-russia/

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:19 AM · Sep 24, 2024 {X}:

⚡️Breaking ❗️
Russian propagandist Solovyev suggests Putin's resignation.

0:45 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1838478421539557879)
-----------------------------------

Northern Man of the West @nathanpdx
Smells like a honeypot for revealing who is disloyal.

Akkanålke @akkanalke1
I would say that this is almost certainly a bluff. Solovyev is very close to Putin, and he would never say this unless it served a purely propagandistic purpose.
Everything Solovyev does and says is directed by the Kremlin and is part of Russia's internal indoctrination of the people, but his show also serves as a tool for psychological warfare.
What’s discussed is always controversial, and it’s always smoke and mirrors. I would take this with a big grain of salt.
Nothing to see here.

🇷🇺 In the Central African Republic, Russian paramilitary forces commit horrifying atrocities in order to gain access to natural resources.
0:36 (https://x.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1838200529232519462)

- U.S. Helsinki Commission @HelsinkiComm | 8:55 AM · Sep 23, 2024
The U.S. Helsinki Commission monitors human rights and international cooperation in the 57 countries of the OSCE. {DC}
-----------------------------------

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe
U.S. Helsinki Commission
csce.gov/issue/helsinki-commission
The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is an independent U.S. government agency created by Congress in 1975 to monitor and encourage compliance with the Helsinki Final Act and other Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe commitments. It was initiated by House representative Millicent Fenwick and established in 1975 pursuant to Public Law No. 94-304 and is based at the Ford House Office Building. {Wikipedia}
__________________________________

U.S. Helsinki Commission @HelsinkiComm | 9:08 AM · Sep 23, 2024 {X}:

HEARING TOMORROW: Russia's Shadow War on NATO
📅 Tuesday, September 24
🕑 2pm

Join us for a discussion about the war that 🇷🇺 is waging against NATO, including by targeting critical energy infrastructure & defense industries.

Stream live: https://youtube.com/live/jBuQxdgnssw
List of speakers (https://x.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1838203777565737407/photo/1)

Central African Republic, Estonia, Japan... Sensing a theme here?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:34 AM · Sep 24, 2024 {X}:

❗️Japanese jet fighters fired warning flares at a Russian military reconnaissance plane that violated Japan’s airspace – The Wall Street Journal

Japanese fighter jets used infrared countermeasures to intercept a Russian Il-38 aircraft.

"A Russian Il-38 patrol aircraft violated our airspace over territorial waters north of Rebun Island, Hokkaido, three times," Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said.

According to Japanese authorities, the Russian aircraft stayed in Japanese airspace for about one minute each time. In response, F-35 fighter jets were raised on alert and used infrared countermeasures several times. Kihara noted that this is the first time Japan's Defense Forces have resorted to such measures.

The violation of Japan's airspace by the Russian aircraft occurred against the backdrop of joint exercises between the naval forces of Russia and China, which took place in the Sea of Japan on Sept. 21-22. Kihara also emphasized that it was "the first documented incursion of a Russian aircraft into our airspace since June 2019," when a Tu-95 bomber crossed the country's border south of Okinawa and near the Izu Islands, south of Tokyo. Japan protested to Russia through diplomatic channels over the incident.

https://wsj.com/world/asia/japan-warns-russia-over-violating-airspace-fires-flar...
---------------------------------

Flares are relatively harmless to other aircraft and fall away under gravity, usually to seduce an infrared missile away from the dispensing aircraft. But they burn brightly and can be used to catch an unresponsive, intercepted aircraft’s attention:

Photos
https://x.com/gregbagwell/status/1838515302226624530/photo/1
https://x.com/gregbagwell/status/1838515302226624530/photo/2

Intercepted: What You Need To Know
Chris Shieff | 21 June, 2021

https://ops.group/blog/intercepted-what-you-need-to-know/

- Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell | 5:46 AM · Sep 24, 2024

Aiyiyi...

Mike Madrid @madrid_mike | 10:57 AM · Sep 27, 2024 {X}:
“The Latino Century” author Latino GOP political consultant; Co-Founder The Lincoln Project ; Data & numbers for breakfast...

Oh look! Donald Trump is embarrassing us in front of the world again. Remember this was every day during his Presidency?

3:27 (https://x.com/madrid_mike/status/1839680698032201959)
From Justin Baragona

“He began to complain of sharp pain in the stomach”: Official documents obtained by The Insider confirm Navalny was poisoned in prison
Roman Dobrokhotov | 29 September 2024

https://theins.press/en/politics/274926

CONTESTING RUSSIA
PREPARING FOR THE LONG-TERM RUSSIAN THREAT
A REPORT BY THE U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION STAFF (70 p)
1 Oct. 2024
https://www.csce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Contesting-Russia-Report-1.pdf
--------------------------------------------

U.S. Helsinki Commission @HelsinkiComm
11 tweets • https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1840767493322703225.html
Read on X https://x.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1840767493322703225

Russia will continue to be a problem for its neighbors, the US, and much of the world.
Even in the best-case scenario in which 🇷🇺 sheds its authoritarian model & its people opt for democracy in free & fair elections, the process of liberalization will be difficult & slow.🧵1/11

Internal repression & external aggression go hand in hand. Therefore, internal developments in Russia are highly relevant to US foreign policy. Externally, there will be no hope for a peaceful and stable Russia while it remains engaged in war and occupation of its neighbors. 2/11

Russia’s official neocolonial policy of continuing to view Ukraine and other former Soviet republics and neighbors as its sandbox to play in whenever the mood strikes is the most significant obstacle to long-term peace and has been the justification for heinous crimes. 3/11

Corruption is baked into Russian business, politics, and everyday life. The Kremlin network of crime and patronage ensures that loyalty to the regime is rewarded and disloyalty is punished. Doing business with Russia is both impractical and unethical. 4/11

Putin has subordinated the judiciary to his personal power to ensure his ideal outcomes, as punishments & to instill fear in the population. Russia’s judiciary will have to be completely rebuilt & a culture of rule of law developed where it traditionally hasn't existed. 5/11

There can be no change in Russia without free and fair elections. Russia must restore free and fair elections and develop a democratic culture—but this must be built on a foundation of free speech and assembly before honest elections are possible. 6/11

Russia will continue to hold other countries hostage through its natural resource wealth. Helping to diversify away from dependence on Russia could severely weaken the Russian economy, but the US must provide countries with viable alternatives. 7/11

The GRU and FSB are Putin’s personal hit squads, involved in threats, surveillance & assassinations. Because no meaningful lustration took place after the fall of the USSR, these security services remain a clear & present danger to Putin’s enemies in Russia & abroad. 8/11

Although with a bit of savvy, Russians can access independent media online, many Russians are isolated from any alternative sources of information that might challenge their thinking. No amount of liberalization in Russia will suddenly undo years of insidious propaganda. 9/11

None of these problems will be resolved quickly, and they necessitate fundamental changes in Russia, including leadership and the political will to overhaul informal and formal government and societal structures. 10/11

Russia will not be able to decide its future without reckoning with the ugliest parts of its recent and more distant history.

To learn more about the obstacles to Russia's reform, see our new report: https://csce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Contesting-Russia-Report-1.pdf 11/11

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:48 AM · Oct 1, 2024
{X}:
Russian military started complaining about shell starvation and attacks on ammunition depots after Ukrainian strikes on Russian warehouses.

"Z-blogger" Yegor Guzenko ("Thirteenth") said the Russian soldiers are still sent into assaults but are not given enough ammunition.
1:00 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1841037435024621944)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:31 AM · Sep 21, 2024 {X}:
Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack on a Russian ammunitions warehouse in Tikhorets district, Krasnodar region of Russia.
It is reported that ammunition from North Korea was stored there.
Russian authorities reported that 101 drones were shot down last night.
0:06, 0:10, 0:31 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1837379152292315390)

Ambassador David Pressman @USAmbHungary | 7:38 AM · Oct 5, 2024 {X}:

Five senior United States Senators visited Hungary this week. Read their important statement:
Text (https://x.com/USAmbHungary/status/1842529835316335087/photo/1)

Lithuania says it intercepted military supplies on their way to Russia, and sent them to Ukraine instead

https://www.businessinsider.com/lithuania-intercepted-russia-military-supplies-s...

The officials said that the cargo was classified as military and needed a special permit and that the shipments were likely sent by Russian volunteer groups trying to support President Vladimir Putin's war effort.
....
In March, Lithuania's prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, told Business Insider: "If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, then whatever happens next is Europe's problem at large."

Lithuania is among several NATO countries bordering Russia that are readying for a Russian invasion, ramping up their military spending and constructing a defensive line along the collective 1,000 miles of border between Russia and Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.
_________
It was camouflage pants, buy hey ... every bit helps.

Ukraine Calls Russian Strike On Grain Ship In Odesa 'Deliberate Terrorist Tactic'
RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service | October 07, 2024

...it was the second ship struck in two days after a Russian air strike over the weekend hit a grain ship in the Pivdenniy port in the Odesa region...

https://www.rferl.org/a/odesa-ukraine-russia-ship-palau-kaliningrad/33149752.htm...

‘That son of a bitch’: New Woodward book reveals candid behind-the-scenes conversations of Biden, Trump, Harris and Putin
Jamie Gangel, Jeremy Herb and Elizabeth Stuart | October 8, 2024

"War" by Bob Woodward

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/bob-woodward-book-war-joe-biden-putin-ne...

Alexei Navalny’s Prison Diaries
Alexei Navalny | October 11, 2024

The Russian opposition leader’s account of his last years and his admonition to his country and the world...

...It will crumble and collapse. The Putinist state is not sustainable.
One day, we will look at it, and it won’t be there. Victory is inevitable.
But for now, we must not give up, and we must stand by our beliefs.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/10/21/alexei-navalny-patriot-memoir

Sung-Yoon Lee @SungYoonLee1 | 5:57 AM · Oct 18, 2024 {X}:
50 Best Autobiographies & Biographies of All Time @panmacmillan,
exuberant prose TheEconomist, remarkable feat WSJ, esp good @nytimes, riveting @TheTLS Booklist

Breaking. S Korea's top spy agency confirms N Korea will send 12,000 troops (4 brigades) to fight against Ukraine, including special forces. Many already deployed.

I'll be on @TimesRadio at 12:05 pm London time to discuss implications. https://shorturl.at/FDILX
https://www.chosun.com/politics/diplomacy-defense/2024/10/18/AX4NPJXXJREGPMDEYAQ...
1/2

I predicted it on @TimesRadio TV in 2023.* N Korea & Russia are in the same boat. NK's casualty threshold may be the highest in the world--the Kim regime is insouciant about its men's lives. This must be exploited by Ukraine: The more NK POWs, the better.
------------------------------------------------

*N Korean troops could be sent to Ukraine’s frontline in Putin - Kim deal
Sep 15, 2023 Frontline | The War in Ukraine and Global Security (49:18)

Sung Yoon Lee, a previous advisor to US administrations on North Korea has told Times Radio’s Frontline that Kim Jong Un could send troops to Ukraine disguised as medics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx60y8UYnHU

Apparently Guterres chose not to attend earlier Ukrainian peace conference (to which Putin was not invited), but went to Russia for BRICS meeting.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:55 AM · Oct 24, 2024 {X}:
UN Secretary-General António Guterres bows before the war criminal who started the bloodiest war in Europe during the entire existence of the UN.
Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849449713784836600/photo/1)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:13 AM · Oct 24, 2024:
UN Secretary-General urged to "strengthen and update the machinery of peace." He spoke about the need for peace in Ukraine - to the war criminal who started the war.

No once did António Guterres condemn Russia's war against Ukraine. Not once did he name Russia as the aggressor. Instead, he said, "we must uphold the values of the UN Charter, the rule of law, and the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of all States."

Hypocrisy on a global scale. Very telling that it is taking place on United Nations Day. The head of UN chose to spend it with a war criminal who repeatedly wiped his feet on the UN charter.

0:41 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849439080766947369)

>15 margd: Instead, he said, "we must uphold the values of the UN Charter, the rule of law, and the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of all States."

Looks like a strong and clear statement to me, spoken to the aggressor on his home ground. I don't see any bowing.

>16 John5918: António Guterres traveled to Russia but not Switzerland. He bowed when shaking Putin's hand. Putin did not bow. Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849449713784836600/photo/1)

Guterres may have been acting on some strategy for peace, but not evident to Ukrainians (or me).

>17 margd:

Guterres is a diplomat, not a populist. He is an appointed official of a multilateral organisation of which Russia is a powerful member, indeed one of the five members which have veto powers. He is keeping channels of communication open with Russia, which is a key element of any eventual peace negotiations. BRICS is an organisation which is important to Russia and indeed may be the only multilateral player which has any influence on Russia at this moment, so Guterres' presence there was strategic. I'm travelling at the moment and can't check back properly, but I read articles suggesting that BRICS did not give Putin the support he desired and opposed any escalation of his war. A strong reminder on the spot from the UN Secretary General of the illegality of the war is part of that process.

Putin didn't so much as pause attacks on Ukrainian civilians during BRICS. Moreover, the butcher took it upon himself to school Guterres on UN reform "for maintaining peace and security". Pax Putin -- blech.

2:07 ( https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849381272050614346 )

I remember a good few years ago when Bush and Blair were condemning Thabo Mbeki for not speaking out more strongly against Robert Mugabe's human rights abuses. His response was basically (I'm paraphrasing from memory), "Has your way worked?" Let us not judge too harshly (nor prematurely) those who dare to try a less popular approach, particularly when the violent and confrontational methods being used by the west don't appear to be bearing fruit either.

This got a reaction:

Zelenskyy's new T-shirt riffs on Trump — and annoyed the Kremlin
Mia Jankowicz | October 25, 2024

...Emblazoned on the black T-shirt, in red and white lowercase letters, was the phrase: "Make Russia small again."

...The T-shirt quickly got a reaction from Russia's foreign ministry on X, which cited its spokesperson Maria Zakharova as calling Zelenskyy a "bloody jerk."

"Small as what? The USSR? The Russian Empire?" the spokesperson said. "Oh, I got it! As the Kievan Rus. For that we need Kiev. You said it yourself, bloody jerk."

... As of Thursday, a copycat "make Russia small again" T-shirt was for sale on at least one e-commerce site, but it's unclear whether it will catch on...

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/zelenskyys-t-shirt-riffs-trump-141012495.htm...

NASA chief calls for investigation into report that Musk and Putin have spoken regularly
Shania Shelton | October 25, 2024

... Musk has played key role in Ukraine conflict
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Musk’s support for Ukraine — exemplified by SpaceX’s provision of Starlink services — has diminished as his public statements about the conflict have become further aligned with those of Trump, who has said he would negotiate an end to the war quickly. The satellite internet terminals provided by Musk’s company have been a vital source of communication for Ukraine’s military, allowing it to fight and stay connected even as cellular and internet networks have been destroyed.

Dmitri Alperovitch, a Russia and cybersecurity expert, told CNN’s Alex Marquardt Friday on “CNN News Central” that Musk’s Starlink is “essential to Ukraine in particular because they really could not prosecute this war without” its services.

After Musk trumpeted his early support for Ukraine, SpaceX then abruptly asked the Pentagon to pay tens of millions of dollars per month to fund Starlink in Ukraine and take the burden off SpaceX. In response to that reporting, Musk then abruptly announced on Twitter that he had withdrawn the funding request. Around the same time, Musk used a poll on X to suggest a “Ukraine-Russia Peace” plan that included re-doing elections “under UN supervision” in the regions of the country recently annexed illegally by Russia. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky questioned Musk’s preference in the war, the tech entrepreneur responded that he “still very much support(s) Ukraine” but feared “massive escalation.”

SpaceX had previously limited its Starlink signal to areas controlled by Ukrainian forces, hampering potential advances that would have relied on Starlink communications. SpaceX then enlarged it to the rest of the country, and earlier this year, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence claimed it has confirmed the use of Starlink satellite communications by Russian forces in occupied areas. Russia appeared to be buying the terminals from third parties; SpaceX said it did not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military and that its service would not work in Russia. The statement didn’t address whether it would work in occupied Ukraine.

Ukraine’s claim followed revelations in a biography of Musk, written by Walter Isaacson, about the satellite system’s use in the war. According to an excerpt from the book, Musk did not grant a Ukrainian request to turn on his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet.

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/elon-musk-vladimir-putin/index.html

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 10:50 PM · Nov 16, 2024
Putin's response to all of the talk of "negotiations"

Quote
Vasyl Myroshnychenko @AmbVasyl | 9:38 PM · Nov 16, 2024
Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia and New Zealand, ex-Advisor to the Minister of Defence. ex-CFC Big Ideas, a stratcom consultancy. LSE and GMF MMF Alumnus.

More than 40 Russian missiles including the hypersonic Kinzhals are in the Ukrainian airspace at the moment. Millions of Ukrainian children and their parents are spending their Sunday morning in bomb shelters. #russiaisaterroriststate
Map https://x.com/AmbVasyl/status/1858021877022863416/photo/1
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Russian drones hunt civilians, evidence suggests
Yogita Limaye, BBC News, in Kherson | 30 October 2024

... war crime ... Evidence of apparent drone attacks on civilians can be seen in numerous videos shared on Ukrainian and Russian social media, six of which were examined by BBC Verify.

In each video, we see through the remote operator’s camera as they track the movements of a pedestrian or motorist in civilian clothing, often dropping grenades which sometimes appear to seriously injure or kill their target.

BBC Verify was also able to identify a Telegram channel which has the earliest public copies yet seen of five of the six videos analysed.

They were each posted with goading and threats to the Ukrainian public, including claims that all vehicles were legitimate targets and that people should minimise their public movement. The injured people were also insulted, called "pigs" or in one case mocked for being a woman...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c207gz7key6o
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia targets Ukraine’s power grid in biggest missile strike in months, officials say
Seven people killed as more than 200 missiles and drones hit Ukraine overnight, while Poland scrambles fighter jets
Dan Sabbagh in Kyiv | 17 Nov 2024

Russia fired more than 200 missile and drones across Ukraine overnight and in the early morning, killing seven people, as Moscow targeted the country’s energy grid in an effort to disrupt power supply as winter looms.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said about 120 missiles and 90 drones were launched by Russia and that two people were killed and six wounded in a drone strike on the southern city of Mykolaiv.

It was the biggest missile and drone attack on Ukraine since August and the first major Russian assault since the US election, showing the Kremlin in little mood to compromise after the victory of Donald Trump...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/17/russia-targets-ukraines-power-grid...
----------------------------------------------------------------

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum | 9:13 AM · Nov 12, 2024:

2. And until then - Biden should send all of the allocated weapons, let the Ukrainians hit targets in Russia with American and European missiles, and above all pressure the Europeans to release the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. No time to lose.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine
And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.
Anne Applebaum | 12 Nov 2024

...“Land for peace” sounds nice, but the president of Russia isn’t fighting for land. Putin is fighting not to conquer Pokrovsk but to destroy Ukraine as a nation. He wants to show his own people that Ukraine’s democratic aspirations are hopeless. He wants to prove that a whole host of international laws and norms, including the United Nations Charter and the Geneva conventions, no longer matter. His goal is not to have peace but to build concentration camps, torture civilians, kidnap 20,000 Ukrainian children, and get away with it—which, so far, he has....

Putin also wants to show that America, NATO, and the West are weak and indecisive, regardless of who is president, and that his brutal regime represents some kind of new global standard. And now, of course, he also needs to show his country that nearly three years of fighting had some purpose, given that this costly, bloody, extended war, officially described as nothing more than a “special military operation,” was supposed to end in a matter of days. Maybe Putin could be interested in stopping the fight for some period of time. Maybe he could be threatened into halting his advance, or bribed with an offer of sanctions relief. But any cease-fire treaty that does not put some obstacle—security guarantees, NATO troops in Ukraine, major rearmament—in the way of another invasion will fail sooner or later because it will simply give Russia an opportunity to rest, rearm, and resume pursuit of the same goals later on.

Putin will truly stop fighting only if he loses the war, loses power, or loses control of his economy. And there is plenty of evidence that he fears all three, despite his troops’ slow movement forward...

{gift article?} https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/11/biden-trump-ukraine/68...
-----------------------------------------------------------

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 6:33 PM · Nov 14, 2024

NEW: The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. 🧵(1/5)
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/1
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/2
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/3
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/4
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/5

2/ The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labor shortages.

3/ These policies demonstrate that the Russian economy is not as resilient to Western sanctions, monetary constraints, and the cost of the war effort as the Russian government postures.

4/ These policies also demonstrate that the Kremlin will not be able to sustain the protracted war effort for years and decades to come while shielding Russian society from economic challenges.

5/ Consistent Western and international support for Ukraine's resistance on the battlefield will further exacerbate Russia's economic problems.
Read more: http://isw.pub/UkrWar111424

6/ Putin modified compensation promised for Russian servicemen wounded while fighting in Ukraine — a clear indicator that the Kremlin is trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of the war and restore balance to the Russian economy.
{text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857257085328650721/photo/1

7/ The Kremlin's efforts to combat inflation and high interest rates are also reportedly impacting the expansion of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and prospects for mobilizing the economy.
{text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857264709008834625/photo/1

8/ The Kremlin is also adopting policies aimed at bolstering the domestic population in the long term, signaling mounting concerns over declining demographics and labor shortages that could threaten the sustainable operations of the Russian DIB.
{text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857272286077698253/photo/1

Elsewhere, in Russia's playbook:

Terje Helland @terjehelland | 15 Nov 2024:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1857449812724998167.html
Read on X: https://x.com/terjehelland/status/1857449812724998167

Occupied Georgia. Let’s talk about Abkhazia, an occupied part of Georgia. This small, Black Sea coastal territory has been at the center of historical conflicts, ethnic tensions, and geopolitical struggles.
🧵Here is the background and why this week’s unrest matters so much... (25 tweets)
-----------------------------------------------------

Moldova formally protests alleged Russian election meddling
Chisinau accuses Moscow of undermining democratic process and condemned drones flown over its territory.
12 Nov 2024
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/12/moldova-formally-protests-alleged-russ...

Ukraine clears 20% of mine-contaminated farmland liberated from Russian forces
Yuri Zoria | 17/11/2024

Russia’s ongoing invasion left 30% of Ukraine contaminated with mines. Large-scale demining, aided by international support, aims to restore farmland...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/17/ukraine-clears-20-of-mine-contaminated-fa...

Russia vetoes UN Security Council action on Sudan war (Reuters)

Russia on Monday vetoed a United Nations Security Council draft resolution that called on Sudan's warring parties to cease hostilities immediately and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid. All other countries of the 15-member council, including China, voted in favor of the measure drafted by Britain and Sierra Leone. Russia was the sole member to vote against, in a move that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said was "mean, nasty and cynical" and sent a message to the warring parties that they can act with impunity...

‘Europe and Canada Must Forget Trump and Form a Coalition of the Willing to Defend Ukraine’
Benjamin Tallis | 19 November 2024

Senior politicians, military leaders and experts send an open letter calling on Europe and Canada to join forces in defending Ukraine from Russian aggression

1. Arm Ukraine to Win
2. Seize ALL the frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s victory
3. Extend air defence over Western Ukraine and use it to cover coalition troops on the ground
4. Provide real security guarantees, including mutual defence, to shepherd Ukraine into NATO
5. Show we can stand up for ourselves

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/19/europe-must-forget-trump-and-form-a-coalition...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:05 AM · Nov 19, 2024:

Two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea have been disrupted by sabotage – German Defense Minister Pistorius.

"A very clear sign that something is going on there. No one believes that these cables were accidentally damaged. And I don't want to believe in the versions that anchors are to blame. So we have to conclude, without knowing who did that, that this is a hybrid action. And we also have to assume, without knowing, of course, that this is sabotage," the German minister said.
0:39 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1858828972152234476)

Undersea cable between Lithuania and Sweden damaged
Telia updated | 2024.11.18 19:13

A telecommunications cable running between Lithuania and Sweden in the Baltic Sea has been damaged ... This followed earlier Finnish media reports about an unexplained failure of an undersea cable between Finland and Germany...

https://lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416006/undersea-cable-between-lithuania-an...

Janis Kluge @jakluge | 4:13 AM · Nov 19, 2024:
Russia & Economics. Deputy Head of Eastern Europe & Eurasia Division. German Institute for International and Security Affairs @SWPBerlin

Russia's economy is in stagnation since February. At the same time, inflation is rising. Over the last 3 years, Russia's economy grew by 1.3% annually (4% in total). Still, it is completely overheated. This shows how sanctions have hurt growth potential.

Graph (https://x.com/jakluge/status/1858846001458557146/photo/1)

https://ecfor.ru/publication/kratkosrochnyj-analiz-dinamiki-vvp-noyabr-2024/

Ukraine fires US-made longer-range missiles into Russia for the first time
Christian Edwards and Kostyantyn Gak | November 19, 2024

... At 3:25 a.m. local time (7:25 p.m. ET) Tuesday, Ukraine fired six ballistic missiles at a facility in Bryansk, the ministry said. It said that American-made ATACMS missiles had been used in the attack.

... President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine – ... Moscow will consider aggression from any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – a joint attack on Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-biden-strike-intl/in...
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Glasnost Gone @GlasnostGone | 6:48 AM · Nov 19, 2024:

... 🇷🇺 Defense Ministry says U.S. ATACMS missiles attacked the below Bryansk region ammo dump & they shot them all down 😉. And the massive explosions were only due to "missile fragments" falling on the depot. 😀 ...

1:15 (https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1858885010625098085/video/1)
Aerial photos
https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1858885010625098085/photo/2
https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1858885010625098085/photo/3

https://bbc.com/russian/live/c2k0gpqg57et?post=asset%3A321e4a6e-e5bf-4a96-97bd-9...

Wonder what's up? A Strangelove moment?
(Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) -- "An unhinged American general orders a bombing attack on the Soviet Union, triggering a path to nuclear holocaust that a war room full of politicians and generals frantically tries to stop.")
What would Xi think?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:25 AM · Nov 21, 2024:
❗️Putin made a public statement:
◾️ the strike on Ukraine today was made using a new Oreshnik ballistic hypersonic missile - a ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead in response to Western long-range weapons being used on Russian territory.
◾️Russia has the right to use weapons against the countries that allow to use their weapons against Russian objects.
◾️Russia will continue testing (!) the newest weapon types on the objects it will choose herself.
Photo Putin (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1859649303511257235/photo/1)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:23 AM · Nov 22, 2024:
Putin met with Russian defense ministry leadership and heads of defense production complex.
They listened very unenthusiastically as Putin raved about Oreshnik.
Some of his statements:
◾️Russia's future largely depends on solving the tasks of the "special military operation".
◾️Oreshnik missile is not a modernization of the old systems but a modern, newest development.
◾️There are currently no means of intercepting Oreshnik in the world.
◾️A decision was made to mass-produce the Oreshnik missile. It will be delivered to the strategic missile forces.
◾️Oreshnik is another reliable guarantor of the territorial integrity of Russia.
◾️Russia has a stockpile of ready-to-use systems like Oreshnik.
0:15 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860011340049322209)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:29 AM · Nov 22, 2024
"Oreshnik missile can hit targets throughout Europe." - Russian strategic missile forces chief Karakayev at a meeting with Putin.
0:33 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860012711691845704)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:02 AM · Nov 22, 2024
The most curious thing about this video are the facial expressions of the officials at the meeting. Putin looks happy. They are clearly not and are thinking hard about something.
Rumors have been circulating since yesterday that there is a serious split among the Kremlin elites, as well as fear of escalation.
Also, information appeared on Russian Telegram channels that today was Putin's first appearance in the Kremlin in the past two weeks. Before today, his location was unclear.
What do you think about their faces?
Photos, mtg attendees
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860021092431131058/photo/1
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860021092431131058/photo/2
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:46 AM · Nov 23, 2024
Medvedev unexpectedly changed his nuclear rhetoric yesterday:
and announced that "we are not crazy and we will not use nuclear weapons."
After his repeated demands to use them and turn everything into nuclear ash, this is a rather strong change.
Apparently, the nuclear war advocates in the Kremlin were made quite aware of the fact that there is personal responsibility for such calls.
Photo Medvedev (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860273616245653781/photo/1)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:52 AM · Nov 23, 2024:

Glad to see the increased investment of our allies into domestic Ukrainian production of weapons:

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson @PlJonson, during a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov, said Sweden would soon allocate "substantial funds" for the mass production of Ukrainian long-range missiles and drones through the Danish model.

Lithuania will finance the production of Ukrainian long-range drones, including the "Palyanytsia" drone missiles. This was announced today alongside a long-term agreement on the establishment of a mechanism to support the security and defense forces of Ukraine. €10 million has already been agreed on and will arrive in the near future.

Thank you to our Nordic partners!
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:02 AM · Nov 23, 2024:

The Kremlin is once again using a time-tested tactic: distracting its citizens with dramatic, attention-grabbing spectacles during times of crisis or unpopular reforms. The recent surge in nuclear rhetoric is a textbook example.

While everybody in Russia is watching the “nuclear threat ping pong”, they overlook the catastrophic fall of the ruble. This is exactly what the Kremlin wants.

At the time of writing, the ruble stands at about 104 per US dollar, its lowest value since March 2022, with further declines expected. This is very bad news for the average Russian, as a weaker ruble drives inflation, worsening an already dire situation. But they are distracted from this reality by the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling.

Why is Moscow downplaying the ruble’s collapse?

▪️The Russian central bank is deliberately letting the ruble depreciate to sustain the staggering war economy. The federal budget faces a 3.3 trillion ruble deficit in 2025, with another 10 trillion rubles—1.5 trillion for military expenses—needed before the end of this year.

▪️The Finance Ministry aimed to sell 4.1 trillion rubles in federal bonds to cover the shortfall but managed only half that. Banks are hesitant, with sales goals for Q2 and Q3 at 50% and Q4 below 10%. Now, the ministry has just six weeks to find 2 trillion rubles, with limited options: either devalue the currency or freeze and seize deposits, both at the expense of Russian citizens.

▪️Despite its self-reliance narrative, Russia heavily depends on imports: 70% of non-food products, 75% of equipment, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices. The reliance is lower for food, about 25% - but given the attempts of the Ministry of Agriculture to lower the prices for basic foodstuffs by importing more, the devaluation of the ruble will increase the prices for most basic goods.

▪️High interest rates have pushed citizens to deposit an extra 7 trillion rubles into savings in 2024. With the ruble in freefall, the deposits lose their value rapidly – but Russians will not be allowed to withdraw their money for fear of a bank panic.

The current exchange rate of the ruble is likely to become a permanent fixture of the Russian war economy. The budget is exhausted, and new revenue sources are scarce. Economists predict a return to the record-low exchange rate of 121 rubles per dollar, seen at the start of the full-scale invasion, within two years. The Finance Ministry’s ambitious GDP growth target (+60 trillion rubles by 2027) is only feasible through continued devaluation of the ruble.
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:29 AM · Nov 23, 2024:

Z-bloggers report that General-Colonel Gennady Anashkin has been removed from his position as commander of the Russian Southern Group of Forces. The alleged reason is the "situation on the Siversk front" and his "unwillingness to inform the higher command about the true state of affairs."

According to Russian sources, General Anashkin provided false information to higher command, leading to significant losses for the Russian army in futile assaults near the settlement of Siversk. "Just recently, false reports came from Siversk about supposed successful breakthroughs, followed by poorly prepared column attacks on enemy positions, resulting in heavy losses and minimal gains."

Photo Anashkin (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860314717023076539)

Russia's New Missile: What it Means for Ukraine & the rest of the World w/Ted Postol, MIT Theodore Postol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ks7xw5Fcxpw
The meat:
https://youtu.be/ks7xw5Fcxpw?si=EKh5ZouVcSOC0VYm&t=1890
Bottom line:
https://youtu.be/ks7xw5Fcxpw?si=i8vu3OvwaOcVhUxI&t=1985

Amb. Freeman's take on the burgeoning missile crisis:
https://www.youtube.com/live/BGbxwTDAavU?si=D_lW7AeHqKtfCz6I&t=1888 Chas Freeman

And Col. Wilkerson:
https://www.youtube.com/live/XBSqv9m2Lyk?si=qB921vc9VZOSY4Rd&t=1879
With remarks on Spokesman Rear Adm. Buchanan's provocative statement: (partially reported here - https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pentagon-open-to-nuclear-response-following... )
https://www.youtube.com/live/XBSqv9m2Lyk?si=-yg6WtK1B8n18sHb&t=2100

>32 margd: Medvedev: never mind(?)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:59 AM · Nov 24, 2024:

Maybe they are “crazy” after all? Talking about the launch of Oreshnik on his Telegram channel, Dmitri Medvedev goes back to his usual rhetoric and threatens European countries with “catastrophic damage”:

“Modern means cannot intercept them, and we're talking about minutes {to reach European capitals}. Bomb shelters won’t help, so the only hope is that a benevolent Russia would warn about launches in advance.”

Photo Medvedev (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860669667926327358/photo/1)

Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Russian Orthodox Church could be a cover for Russian spies in Europe, - OSINT investigation by Molfar.

Russian spies are active in Europe – there is no argument. However, a new investigation uncovers the potential for espionage under the cover of religious activities of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) across the EU.

🇸🇪Sweden. In Västerås, the Russian Orthodox Church built a temple suspiciously close to numerous strategic facilities. Led by priest Pavel Makarenko, the Church has been funded in part by Rosatom, the Russian state atomic energy corporation, despite efforts to conceal this link.

The location of the church is strategically significant. It is near an airport, energy facilities, and Westinghouse Electric’s nuclear fuel production plant. Analysts suggest that the church's proximity to these sensitive sites is no coincidence. The priest, Makarenko, also has ties to suspicious Russian business activities in Sweden. Similar patterns emerge in other Swedish cities like Uppsala, Stockholm, and Göteborg, where ROC temples are consistently located near military and governmental sites.

🇫🇮Finland. Here, concerns about the Russian Orthodox Church’s (ROC) activities have focused on Igumen Nikita, a cleric reportedly aligned with the Moscow Patriarchate. His church in Turku was closed in 2022 due to growing suspicions about its ties to the Moscow Patriarchate and potential dissemination of pro-Russian narratives amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine. But that remains a standalone case, where suspicious church activity was halted.

A pattern similar to Sweden repeats here, with churches placed in proximity of strategic objects of military and infrastructural importance.

🇨🇿Czechia. In Prague, the state-owned Russian company "Gazprom Neft" partially funded the decoration of the Cathedral of Saints Cyril and Methodius, which belongs to the Michalovce-Košice Diocese of the Orthodox Church of the Czech Lands and Slovakia. Archbishop Christophoros of Prague awarded Dmitry Malyshev, the advisor to the chairman of the board of "Gazprom Neft," for his assistance to the Church.

These are just a few examples analyzed by Molfar.

Source: https://molfar.com/blog/rpc-shpygue-u-evropi-doslidzhennya-molfar-chastyna-persh...

Photo Putin and church leader (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860666137089917362/photo/1)

Putin’s Assassination Targets Revealed in Declassified Memo
Jason Leopold | November 22, 2024

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has released a long-classified memorandum shedding light on the targeted killings of Vladimir Putin’s political adversaries, following nearly eight years of persistent public records efforts ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-22/putin-s-assassination-targ...
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Russian Ballet Dancer Critical of Putin Falls to His Death
Amethyst Martinez | Nov. 18 2024

In February 2022, at the beginning of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, the dancer spoke out against the violence. “I am against the war in Ukraine!”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-ballet-dancer-vladimir-shklyarov-critical-...

The new Russian missile is nothing new. It is a ballistic missile, go straight up into the atmosphere, travel a distance and then go straight down and enormous speed due to gravity, split into numerous parts and hit a large area. very difficult to stop. As it is intended to be a nuclear armed weapon accuracy is not really an issue and it is not. When it is used as now with ordinary explosives it is a very expensive way to deliver a handful of bombs to a Ukrainian city. It is not accurate enough to target military positions but against large civilian targets it will do fine, killing many. It is basically the modern version of the V2 rockets of Germany during WW2.

It is just another of Putins terror weapons that are supposed to scare the west a bit, and kill Ukrainians. Just Putin waving his nuclear threat a bit to deter aid to Ukraine. Nothing to worry about for us. For the Ukrainians getting maimed or kill it is another matter of course.

>38 Ardagor: A new intermediate-range missile crisis is indeed something to worry about. We're on track to repeat that error.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/germany-united-states-missiles/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-believes-russias-attack-ukraine-showcased-new-m...

Western officials suspect Russia was behind a plot to put incendiary packages on cargo planes
VANESSA GERA | November 5, 2024

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Western security officials suspect Russian intelligence was behind a plot to put incendiary devices in packages on cargo planes headed to North America, including one that caught fire at a courier hub in Germany and another that ignited in a warehouse in England.

Poland said last month that it has arrested four people suspected to be linked to a foreign intelligence operation that carried out sabotage and is searching for two others. Lithuania’s prosecutor general Nida Grunskiene said Tuesday there were an unspecified number of people detained in several countries, offering no elaboration...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-poland-germany-sabotage-cargo-planes-b7f559805...
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SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre @StratcomCentre | 4:03 AM · Nov 25, 2024:
Spreading the truth, fighting fakes and shooting down propaganda. The Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security of Ukraine.

After the Russian GRU is caught trying to blow up DHL planes in Europe, a DHL plane blows up in Europe.

Police in Lithuania today saying the "possibility of a terrorist attack cannot be ruled out", after a DHL flight crashes in this morning in Vilnius.

0:16 (https://x.com/StratcomCentre/status/1860972644453032275)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:42 AM · Nov 2, 2024:

Financial Times: South Korea considers direct military support for Ukraine, which could prove decisive in the war against Russia

South Korea has supported Ukraine throughout the war by providing humanitarian aid and helping replenish U.S. artillery supplies. However, South Korea’s policy only permits weapon exports for “peaceful purposes,” so it has not sent lethal aid directly to Ukraine. Recently, news of North Korean troops joining Russian forces has led Seoul to reconsider its stance.

Key points to consider:

▪️President Yoon Suk Yeol, known for his “hardline” approach to North Korea, sees this deployment as a serious security threat, fearing it could give North Korean troops combat experience and lead to Russia sharing advanced military technology with Pyongyang.

▪️The leftist opposition in South Korea, which holds a majority in parliament, is strongly against any interference by their country in what they see as a “proxy war in a faraway land”. They fear that South Korean cooperation with Ukraine may lead to escalation and even potential war on the Korean peninsula.

▪️The Korean society is not very supportive of the idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine, either. Only 13% of South Koreans want their country to provide lethal aid, while 66% prefer focusing on humanitarian aid.

▪️Since the Korean war in the 1950’s, Seoul has built an impressive military industry to deter their Northern neighbor. In fact, simply in the act of replenishing US supplies sent to Ukraine, South Korea has supplied more weapons than all European countries combined. If they choose to supply lethal aid directly to Ukraine, they can turn the tides in this war, experts think.

▪️President Zelenskyy plans to send a delegation to Seoul to request artillery and air defense systems. The decision on whether or not to fill this request depends on the intensification of cooperation between Russia and North Korea. South Korea’s decision will likely depend on whether Russia is confirmed to be sharing advanced military technologies with North Korea.

The North Korean deployment may not have a decisive effect on the battlefield, but it can seriously tip the scales on the international arena.

Source: https://ft.com/content/e7ca9021-1321-46c8-9b0c-2009a4c0dd50
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:32 AM · Nov 25, 2024:

Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Andrey Rudenko called on South Korean to "soberly assess the situation and refrain from reckless steps".

"Seoul must realize that the possible use of South Korean weapons to kill Russian citizens will fully destroy relations between our countries. Of course, we will respond in every way that we find necessary. It is unlikely that this will strengthen the security of the Republic of Korea itself," Rudenko noted.

"I hope that the administration of the Republic of Korea will be guided primarily by long-term national interests, and not by short-term opportunistic considerations prompted from outside," he added.

In my opinion, long-term national interests of South Korea will benefit from military aid to Ukraine and helping us defeat Russia. And I think Russia realizes this, too.

Photo Russian deputy minister (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1861040175381369186/photo/1)

Stockpile diapers, medication, baby food: NATO members Sweden and Finland advise citizens on how to survive war
Sana Noor Haq | November 18, 2024

... Booklets distributed to millions of households in the Nordic nations include instructions on how to prepare for the effects of military conflicts, communications outages and power cuts, as well as extreme weather events.

From stockpiling bottled water and sanitary products, to growing edible foodstuffs at home, government authorities offered tips on how residents could sustain themselves in the event of war. The brochures also include advice for parents and caregivers, instructing people to preserve diapers, medication and baby food...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/18/europe/nato-sweden-finland-wartime-guidance-intl/...
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Pekka Kallioniemi @P_Kallioniemi | 11:27 AM · Nov 24, 2024
Vatnik Soup. The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation {Finland}

Russia would not dare invade Finland. We are too strong.

- Our wartime military strength is around 280 000 trained men
- Finland has heavily forested terrain and over 187 000(!) lakes larger than five ares
- Largest artillery capability in western Europe
- Military doctrine of total defence, meaning that all sectors of the government and economy are involved in the defence planning
- Over 50 000 civil defence shelters with space for a total of almost 5 million people
- Our homeland defence willingness against a superior enemy is at 83%, one of the highest rates in Europe
- Our security of supply is one of the highest in the world
- We are also in close collaboration with out NATO allies

All this was planned long ago, because we know our neighbor. And I'm not talking about Sweden...

Bill Madden @maddenifico | 10:18 PM · Nov 25, 2024:
This is huge. The European Union is stepping up against Putin and Russia. {airspace, propaganda, Belarus too} 🙌🙏💪👏👊👇

1:02 (https://x.com/maddenifico/status/1861248012674093315)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:24 AM · Nov 26, 2024:

There are clear signs that Russian economy is headed toward a collapse:

◾️ Resources are being used to the maximum. This means they will be increasingly expensive for enterprises, and not everyone will be able to afford them.

◾️ Prices are increasing, and the Russian Central Bank cannot stop them. Last week, according to Rosstat, inflation rose again: up to 0.37% (a week earlier, it was 0.30%). To slow down price growth, it is necessary either to stop economic growth and budget expenditures (infusions in the military-industrial complex, etc.) or put up with inflation rates above the target, the Russian Academy of Sciences said.

◾️ Only certain industries are growing in Russia, primarily machinery. In other words, what the budget pays huge amounts of money for and what goes to be destroyed in Ukraine is on the rise. This means that the money poured into industry does not bring anything to the economy except for the figures that are pleasant to the ear of the authorities. But even this growth has already been exhausted, as next year, GDP will increase by only 0.5-1%, and the growth rates of investments and private consumption may go to zero.

◾️ The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Russian economy will slow down threefold, from 3.9% growth this year to 1.3% next year. This is three and a half times less than in developed countries and 5-6 times less than in China or India.

◾️ A total of 4,363 legal Russian entities were declared bankrupt in the first six months of 2024, which is 40% more than in the same period a year earlier. And this is with the declared economic growth of 4%. What will happen at the economic growth of 0.5%, as predicted by the Central Bank? Mass bankruptcies and the economy of the early 90s - lots of tanks, nothing to eat?
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:03 AM · Nov 25, 2024

I recommend reading through. The overall picture is very telling.

‼️ Bankruptcies, losses, and optimization of the largest and most important enterprises and banks are happening in Russia.
:
In 2025, Russians will face a new series of losses and bankruptcies. The reason is not only sanctions restrictions but also growing problems inside Russia.

◾️ Rusal, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, announced the start of production optimization - it will be reduced by 250 thousand tons in the first stage. The company explained the decision of optimization by "record prices for raw materials and high risks of a continued negative macroeconomic environment."

◾️ Major Russian mining and metals company Mechel announced the suspension of one of its enterprises - Olzherasskaya-Novaya mine in Mezhdurechensk. The reason is problems with the sales market.

◾️ Major Russian corporation PJSC Gazprom made a record net loss of $6.1 billion in 2023, becoming Russia's most unprofitable company for the first time in 25 years.

◾️ ALROSA (Russian group of diamond mining companies) reduced its revenue under Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) by 30% and net profit by 3 times in 9 months. The net loss amounted to 6.5 billion rubles ($62,7 million).

◾️ Baltika brewing company is among the top ten most unprofitable companies in Russia in 2024. In 2022, the company's revenue was about 100 billion rubles ($965 million). In 2023, the net loss was 28.1 billion rubles ($271,1 million). The option of filling the budget by nationalizing profitable private enterprises has failed.

◾️ PJSC KAMAZ's net loss for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to 3.8 billion rubles ($36,6 million) against a profit of 15.8 billion rubles ($152,4 million) for the same period last year, according to financial statements published on the company's website.

◾️ AvtoVAZ automobile manufacturing company is talking about possible bankruptcy and debts of over 100 billion rubles ($965 million). This is due to the increase of the Russian key rate.

◾️ Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin is going to classify data on Russian oil exports and the production volumes of Russian refineries ostensibly to protect Russia's national interests from "unfriendly actions" by the USA and other Western countries. In reality, it is to hide the crisis in this field.

◾️ Sanctions were imposed on Gazprombank, the major bank, and fifty other banks. Sanctions were also imposed against the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS, sort of Russian analog of the international SWIFT messaging system).

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 1:30 PM · Dec 14, 2023
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

NEW: The US has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think.
As Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win. 🧵(1/19) ...

On X: https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1735366664764702978
---------------------------------------

The High Price of Losing Ukraine:
Part 1 — Military-Strategic & Financial Implications of Russian Victory
Part 2 — The Military Threat and Beyond
Dec 14, 2023 - ISW Press
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-1-%...

Why Russia's Africa propaganda warrior was sent home (BBC)

Dodging bullets, ducking explosions, safeguarding state secrets. Bombastic propaganda films present the shadowy Russian political operative Maxim Shugalei as a heroic figure - who will apparently stop at nothing in his quest to promote the country abroad. While his escapades have no doubt been exaggerated, in real life he has played a significant role in the expansion of Russia's influence in parts of Africa, working closely with the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries. However, this would-be iron man recently suffered a set-back when he was arrested in the central African nation of Chad. He, along with fellow Russian operatives Samer Sueifan and E Tsaryov, were detained in September on unexplained charges, before being freed and sent home earlier this month, according to the Russian embassy... he is a spin doctor and an agent of Russian influence known for his work on the African continent. He has been under EU sanctions since 2023 for overseeing disinformation campaigns to promote the Wagner Group in several African countries, and is also the subject of Ukrainian sanctions. Since at least 2010, Shugalei was affiliated with the late Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner boss and a close associate of President Vladimir Putin...

Russia tries to stem panic over the plummeting ruble, as the central bank is forced to intervene
Holly Ellyatt | Nov 28 2024

Key Points
Russian authorities are trying to stem panic over the ruble’s sharp fall this week, with the central bank stepping in to suspend the currency in a situation, while Kremlin flagged an unnecessary “panic.”
The ruble weakened to 114 against the greenback — its the lowest level since March 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Russia’s central bank was forced to intervene on Wednesday to try to prop up the flailing currency.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/28/russia-tries-to-stem-panic-over-plummeting-ruble...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 12:00 PM · Nov 30, 2024:

Donald Trump has confirmed the appointment of General Keith Kellogg as US special envoy for the Russian-Ukrainian War.

Earlier, Kellogg offered Trump his plan to "freeze" the conflict. His main proposals were:

◾️ Washington will supply Ukraine with weapons to prevent new Russian attacks only if Kyiv agrees to peace talks;
◾️ The United States will warn Moscow that if it refuses to negotiate, Washington will increase aid to Kyiv;
◾️ to push Russia into the talks, the United States and other NATO countries will postpone the question of Ukraine's membership indefinitely in exchange for a "comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees";
◾️ Ukraine will not be required to give up its intention to return all its territories seized by Russia. However, Kyiv must agree that only diplomatic means will be used to achieve this goal and that the process may take a long time;
◾️ in order to get Russia to agree to the deal, the plan proposes to partially lift sanctions imposed on it but, at the same time, impose levy on Russian energy exports to finance Ukraine's reconstruction;
◾️ the plan also contains a proposal to freeze the front line and introduce a demilitarized zone.

This does not mean this plan is final and will be adopted in this form.

Today, we are at the peak of uncertainty, at a bifurcation point.

Strategic uncertainty is exacerbated by escalation. Today, no one can say what the future will look like, what decisions will be made, and to what extent escalation may reach.

"Black swans" appear, such as the situation in Syria.

Uncertainty increases mass anxiety, which provokes panic, so it is important to try to maintain mental stability and the ability to critically analyze the situation.

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1862904426710831576/photo/1)

Trey Yingst @TreyYingst | 1:08 PM · Dec 25, 2024:
Chief Foreign Correspondent │ @FoxNews Photojournalism │ @XperienceHumans
NYT Bestselling Author │ Black Saturday

Russia launched 70 missiles and 100 drones into Ukraine on Christmas morning. 1035 days of war.

Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’
Listening equipment was placed on Eagle S and related tanker Swiftsea Rider to monitor Nato naval and aircraft activities, Lloyd’s List was told
Michelle Wiese Bockmann | 27 Dec 2024

“Eagle S, the Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging an … electricity cable on Christmas Day, was kitted out with special transmitting & receiving devices … used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship”

‘“Russians, Turkish, Indian radio officers were operating it.” Eagle S also dropped “sensors-type devices” in the English Channel during a transit, they said.’

“an unauthorised person, who was not a seafarer, had been identified on board Eagle S…listening and recording equipment was brought on … via “huge portable suitcases” along with “many laptops” that had keyboards for Turkish and Russian … when calling at Türkiye and Russia”

“The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.”

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1151955/Russia-linked-cable-cutting-tanker-seized-b...

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated | 5:11 PM · Dec 26, 2024:

After all the threats to Poland, an enraged Putin, frustrated by Ukraine’s suspension of gas transit, is now seriously proposing that Poland restore gas transit through its territory via the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

0:34 (https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1872405012724568141)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:47 AM · Dec 27, 2024:

Medvedev made yet another disgusting statement on his Telegram channel:

“Europe must be punished by all means available to us: political, economic and all kinds of hybrid means. And that is why it is necessary to help any destructive processes in Europe. Long live the aggressive pogromists on its historic streets! Long live the crowds of migrants who commit atrocities and hatefully destroy the rainbow European values! May all the disgusting faces of European bureaucrats disappear in the stream of future civil clashes!”

‘I don’t want flowers, I want my Ukraine’: women’s acts of resistance against Russian occupation (Giardian)

On 8 March 2023, International Women’s Day, Russian soldiers were handing out tulips and boughs of mimosa to women and girls in the city of Melitopol, southern Ukraine – a move designed to promote friendly relations between the occupiers and the inhabitants. But the night before, someone had been discreetly sticking posters to walls and lamp-posts. They bore the image of a young Ukrainian woman, dressed in a traditional embroidered shirt, smashing a bouquet over a Russian soldier’s head. “I don’t want flowers,” read the slogan. “I want my Ukraine.” This was one of the earliest acts of a women’s resistance movement in Russian-occupied Ukraine that claims hundreds of members, from Crimea in the south to the Luhansk region in the east...