Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 13

Terry Hughes @ProfTerryHughes | 2:34 AM · Oct 17, 2024:
{Biologist. Terence P. Hughes is a professor of marine biology at James Cook University in Queensland, Australia. He is known for research on the global coral bleaching event caused by climate change. Nature dubbed him "Reef sentinel" in 2016 for the global role he plays in applying multi-disciplinary science to securing reef sustainability. Wikipedia}

No matter what colour scheme you use, we are now witnessing terrible destruction of corals throughout most of the Caribbean.

Accumulated heat stress (Degree Heating Weeks) this week matched or surpassed or exceeded 2023 - with the notable exception of Florida and Cuba.

Maps
{heat} https://x.com/ProfTerryHughes/status/1846801966309015877/photo/1
{bleaching} https://x.com/ProfTerryHughes/status/1846801966309015877/photo/2

Source: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_current/5km/v3.1_op/daily/png/ct5km_dhw_v3....

Most corals begun to bleach at 4 DHW units, sensitive species and genotypes die at 6-8, and more than 12 is catastrophic.

Easy peasy, right?

Climate change despair has never been higher — but experts say hope is still possible
Matthew Rozsa | October 22, 2024

Young people are increasingly pessimistic about the future due to the climate crisis, but we can still take action

... It’s just a question of taking power away from the people who are blocking that transition due to prioritizing their bank accounts over all of life on Earth ...

... A recent survey study Lancet Planetary Health* found, using data of more than 15,000 16-to-25-year-olds, that human-caused climate change is impacting the mental health of 85% of young Americans. This includes overwhelming majorities of Democrats and independents (96% and 86% respectively), as well as nearly three out of four Republicans (74%). The study comes with potentially serious political consequences, as respondents of all ideological persuasions wanted more government action on the environment.

More than three out of five report feeling anxious, powerless and/or angry because of climate change, while almost two out of five say it impacts their ability to function daily. More than half (52%) report basing their decisions to have children on the reality of climate change, with more than two-thirds (69%) saying it also influences where they choose to live ...

https://www.salon.com/2024/10/22/climate-change-despair-has-never-been-higher--b...
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* R Eric Lewandowski et al. 2024. Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events. The Lancet Planetary Health, 17 Oct 2024. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196%2824%2900229-8/f... OPEN ACCESS

‘We don’t know where the tipping point is’: climate expert* on potential collapse of Atlantic circulation
Jonathan Watts | 23 Oct 2024

What is Amoc?
How is Amoc different to the Gulf Stream?
What is happening to Amoc?
Are there other indications that Amoc is weakening?
Why is the salt content significant?
What is driving the change in salinity?
When might Amoc weakening reach a point of no return?
What is the range of forecasts?
Is there any possibility it has already happened?
What would be the warning signs of Amoc collapse?
What would be the consequences of Amoc breakdown?
Many of these things are happening already, aren’t they?
Could the cooling effect of Amoc collapse offset the heating caused by human emissions?
How certain is the science about Amoc collapse?
Why haven’t the IPCC made more of Amoc risks?
How long would an Amoc collapse last and how survivable would it be?
How does the Amoc threat compare to other climate tipping points?

* Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf. Head of Earth System Analysis @ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & professor of Physics of the Oceans @ Potsdam University.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/23/we-dont-know-where-the-tippi...
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Stefan Rahmstorf: public lecture in Vilnius
34:54 (https://x.com/rahmstorf/status/1799048979004678651)

Philip Boucher-Hayes @boucherhayes
Oct 22, 2024 • 6 tweets
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1848595891998818336.html

Yesterday 44 of the world’s leading climate scientists wrote an open letter* about collapse of the Atlantic Ocean’s circulation (AMOC)

When I interviewed one of them about the consequences of AMOC reaching a tipping point he could barely keep it together. 🧵 ...
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* Open letter from Climate Scientists to the Nordic Council of Ministers {re collapse of AMOC} (2p plus 3p of signatories)
https://en.vedur.is/media/ads_in_header/AMOC-letter_Final.pdf

Sliver of cool surface water 2mm deep helps oceans absorb CO2, say scientists
Steven Morris | 25 Oct 2024

Subtle temperature difference between ‘ocean skin’ and water beneath found to drive more CO2 absorption...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/25/ocean-skin-cool-surface-wate...

Current climate pledges still fall way short on Paris goals, UN body says
David Stanway | October 28, 2024

Summary

UN says national pledges will cut emissions 2.6% by 2030
Cut of 43% required to keep temperature goals in reach
Atmospheric CO2 sees record rise in last two decades

... far from sufficient to achieve the 43% cut that scientists say is required to stay within reach of a Paris Agreement target to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), it warned.

... Carbon dioxide concentrations hit a new high of 420 parts per million (ppm) last year, up 2.3 ppm from a year earlier, and they have risen by 11.4% in just 20 years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said in its annual greenhouse gas bulletin.

... Last year's increase in CO2 concentrations, the second largest annual rise of the last decade, could have been driven by a surge in forest fires, with the carbon released from Canada's worst ever wildfire season exceeding the annual emissions of most major countries.

CO2 concentrations are now 51% higher than pre-industrial levels, while methane - another potent greenhouse gas - is 165% higher than in 1750, WMO said...

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/current-climate-pledges-still-fall-...

Injecting Diamonds Into The Sky Could Cool The Planet, Study Says
Mike McRae | 23 October 2024

... A team of researchers, led by climate scientist Sandro Vattioni from ETH Zurich in Switzerland, have done the math on which materials would be most suitable for a stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) method of global cooling, finding a few hundred trillion dollars' worth of diamond nanoparticles ought to do the trick.

... nobody is suggesting SAI is the preferred means of avoiding future climate catastrophe. Not while there are safer, far cheaper options on the table like nixing fossil-fuel combustion.

Yet exercises like this study are worth having up our sleeve for a variety of reasons. They might actually help us avoid a worst-case scenario, or show us how to avoid a costly mistake. They could potentially even translate into studies on exotic exoplanet atmospheres far from Earth ...

https://www.sciencealert.com/injecting-diamonds-into-the-sky-could-cool-the-plan...
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S. Vattioni et al. 2024. Microphysical Interactions Determine the Effectiveness of Solar Radiation Modification via Stratospheric Solid Particle Injection. Geophysical Research Letters, 07 October 2024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110575 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL110575 Open Access

Scientists Were Wrong: Plants Absorb 31% More CO2 Than Previously Thought
Oak Ridge National Laboratory | October 26, 2024

New research shows plants absorb 31% more CO2 than previously estimated, raising the global GPP to 157 petagrams per year. Using carbonyl sulfide as a proxy for photosynthesis, this study highlights tropical rainforests’ critical role as carbon sinks and stresses the importance of accurate photosynthesis modeling for climate predictions ...

Improved Estimates Using New Models
The Importance of Mesophyll Conductance
Implications for Tropical Rainforests and Future Climate Predictions

https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-were-wrong-plants-absorb-31-more-co2-than-pr...
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Jiameng Lai et al. 2024. Terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from plant carbonyl sulfide uptake. Nature, 16 October 2024.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-08050-3

>7 margd: Interesting proposal. Cheaper materials have also been proposed, of course, and as I understand it calcium carbonate - chalk - is a strong contender. But it's good to know that diamonds are also an option.

nobody is suggesting SAI is the preferred means of avoiding future climate catastrophe. Not while there are safer, far cheaper options on the table like nixing fossil-fuel combustion.

This is mostly correct. Nobody is suggesting that solar geo solves the ongoing catastrophe of climate change, but there are specific catastrophes that at this point are certain to happen in the near future for which solar geo (aka SAI) could be helpful, for example local cooling to prevent deaths in wet-bulb events. It may also be helpful in reducing the need for individual air conditioning in hot climates - since air conditioning is a huge consumer of electrical power, this would help in reducing over all power draw in places where electrical generation is mostly coal-fueled.

As your article suggests, doing this research is very different from deciding to proceed with a full-scale live-fire deployment of solar geo. But sadly, a devil's coalition of big-money enviro orgs and Qanon chemtrail kooks have been working very effectively to ensure that experimentation in this area is blocked, which means that we probably won't have a good understanding of these tools when we need them, and that what testing does get done will be done by ad-hoc private organizations.

I don't know if anyone has asked the residents of Mumbai how they feel about being sacrificed for whatever purpose this coalition is working towards, but I suspect that the people under the gun are going to have the least say, as usual. (see also: Gaza)

>9 kiparsky: "Smoked" or "cut glass" anomalies on lung scans came to mind ...

"Ground glass", I mean...

>10 margd: Not sure I'm following you. Are you suggesting that people might inhale the particulates and that this might show up as lung issues?

This seems unlikely, to say the least. The concentrations of particulates under solar geo scenarios that I've seen are extremely low, and injected very high in the atmosphere. Obviously, they would eventually descend, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where particulates wind up persisting in the lower atmosphere as pollutants.

But of course, that's exactly why you'd want to test these things. At some point, we're certainly going to need them, and at that point they certainly will be deployed. At that point, I think it would be nice to know something about the characteristics of different materials - namely, what atmospheric concentrations are required to be effective, and whether any of the candidates produce unwelcome side effects, and if so, what those side effects look like and how they compare to the do-nothing alternative.

But apparently the Friends of the Earth think that it would be best to just leave it and go into that scenario completely blind, and that's what I don't understand at all.

Critical Antarctica glacier appears to be smoking in rare view from space
Eric Zerkel | October 29, 2024

... Water and wind were key in conjuring up the sea smoke {fog}. A bout of strong winds pushed aside ice and colder water allowing warmer water to come to the surface, according to NASA. The warmer water injected warmer, moist air into the exceptionally dry, cold air whipping across it. The temperature clash caused the moisture in that air to condense into fog.

... Sea smoke itself isn’t rare – it can happen any time exceptionally cold, dry air passes over a warmer body of water. It’s often seen on the Great Lakes when the first Arctic blast of winter passes over lakes that are still relatively warm.

... Pine Island Glacier ... along with the neighboring so-called “Doomsday Glacier,” Thwaites, are losing ice at an accelerated pace over the past several decades and have the potential to raise sea levels on their own by a few feet.

The glaciers also help to prevent the collapse of the rest of the Antarctic ice sheet behind them that has enough ice to raise sea levels a catastrophic 10 feet...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/weather/rare-view-of-sea-smoke-seen-from-space/in...

What Will Our World Look Like at 4 Degrees?
PBS Terra | Oct 2024
13:10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFqR7gj32kc

The New York Times @nytimes | 12:45 PM · Nov 19, 2024:

China has now passed Europe and is approaching the U.S. in its historical contribution to global warming. At climate talks in Baku, rich nations say China should chip in more aid to address the problem. https://nyti.ms/3CCC2XJ

Graph: CO2 emissions, 1850-2024, US/ China / EU https://x.com/nytimes/status/1858974812720300168/photo/1

Flooding May Be the Climate Health Hazard of Our Time, Report Suggests
— Health effects are distributed inequitably, but clinicians have an important role to play
Sophie Putka | November 21, 2024

Flooding is the most common climate hazard, affecting more than 1.65 billion people from 2000 to 2019, with approximately 104,614 lives lost ...

Deaths can increase, not only from flood-related accidents, but also from interrupted access to care, water and sanitation problems, waterborne pathogens, food insecurity, under-nutrition, and psychological distress.

Injuries are also a risk during and after flooding, from collisions with fast-moving objects to releases of hazardous chemicals stored in the flooded environment. Waterborne, rodent-borne, or mosquito-borne diseases, including leptospirosis, can also increase after floods, and problems with water systems can spread gastrointestinal diseases, hepatitis A and E, and other pathogens from contaminated soil or overflow of bodies of water. Overcrowding of shelters can increase transmission of respiratory diseases, and being exposed to flood water can increase infections.

Management of noncommunicable diseases can also suffer after floods, because of displacement, disruption to travel, damaged facilities, and loss of staff, records, or supplies. Prioritization of patients in flooded areas can lead to a loss of services in other areas. Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable to health harms, and children in low- and middle-income countries may be at risk for under-nutrition because of loss of resources that lead to food insecurity.

In addition, people affected by physical and economic insecurity that occurs with flooding are more likely to have depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder. Domestic violence and psychosocial symptoms like pain can rise. This kind of stress, along with decreased school attendance and other disruptions, can affect children in particular, who may see impairments in cognitive development...

https://www.medpagetoday.com/publichealthpolicy/environmentalhealth/113046
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Yao Wu et al. 2024. Climate Change, Floods, and Human Health (Special Report). N Engl J Med 20 Nov 2024;391:1949-1958 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMsr2402457 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2402457

Leon Simons (is fine) @LeonSimons8 | 9:13 AM · Nov 22, 2024:

Increase in air pollution over Europe likely contributed to southward shifting of rainbands. Which led to drought and famine in the Sahel region.
Global (NH {N Hemisphere}) warming and reduced aerosols now cause the ITCZ {Intertropical Convergence Zone} to shift north.
AMOC slow down could reverse this.
It's complicated!

Map, w article citation (https://x.com/LeonSimons8/status/1860008741766332710/photo/1)
Text excerpt (https://x.com/emethias/status/1859768797961633881/photo/1)

"Emergency" Warning For Antarctica Issued By Nearly 500 Polar Scientists

https://www.iflscience.com/emergency-warning-for-antarctica-issued-by-nearly-500...

The rate of melting appears to be accelerating too. Satellite imagery suggests that Antarctica is losing ice more than six times faster than it was 30 years ago. Even East Antarctica, once thought to be relatively stable and immune to change, is starting to show signs of extreme upset, such as heatwaves and huge melting events.

If the world ramps up its greenhouse gas emissions, coastal cities in Australia are likely to see a devastating 80 centimeters (31 inches) of sea level rise by 2100, says the AAPP.

Adaptation could help to ease the problem, but ultimately the world needs to enact “deep, rapid, and sustained” reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to limit the catastrophe in the making.

“Our societies must set and meet targets to ‘bend the carbon curve’ as quickly as possible. Failure to rapidly reduce emissions – every year and every tonne – commits actual and future generations to greater sea-level rise,” the researchers go on.

“Every fraction of a degree matters.”

Trump 2.0: This Time the Stakes for Climate Are Even Higher
Michael Gerrard • November 18, 2024

Donald Trump has promised to halt federal climate action and repeal the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, which provides unprecedented spending for clean energy. The market momentum for renewables and efforts by states and cities may be the only hope for U.S. climate progress.

Renewable Energy
Motor Vehicles
Coal-Fired Power Plants
Fossil Fuels
International Agreements

State and Local Action
.... While states cannot impose their own standards on motor vehicles without federal approval, in most other respects states are free to set stronger environmental standards than Washington. States can also adopt energy efficiency standards for appliances that are not subject to federal standards.

States and cities can use their procurement power to require low-emissions production of the cement, steel, and other commodities they buy and can demand clean motor vehicles and appliances. They purchase all of these in large quantities, which impacts manufacturers.

Blue states and cities, together with environmental groups, can be expected to vigorously litigate against Trump’s actions on climate change, as they did during Trump’s first term. The next four years will be rocky, indeed, and will keep lawyers on both sides very busy.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/trump-second-term-climate

Today’s climate news

Thousands feared dead after Cyclone Chido hits French overseas territory Mayotte

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mayotte-cyclone-chido-french-overseas-territory-dea...

Montana Supreme Court rules in favor of a liveable climate for the youth. Places responsibility on the state to protect them.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DDvrLbMJtvx/?img_index=5&igsh=Ym1paGdrNGJsMzFo